Projected rise in cancer cases related to increased life expectancy in developing nations

By Adam Sadik •

Emma Johnson, freshman biology major, is concerned about the latest figures from the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

The latest figures project a surge in cancer cases, with estimates exceeding 35 million in 2050, compared to the approximately 20 million recorded in 2022. This is a 77% increase on what was previously predicted.

“It is definitely worrying to me. It’s a reminder of the need for greater investment in research and preventive measures,” Johnson said. “As a student, it motivates me to focus my education towards contributing to the fight against cancer and making a positive impact on future health outcomes.”

Despite Johnson’s worry, Stephen Grant, professor in the Dr. Kiran C. Patel College of Osteopathic Medicine and a founding member of the Center for Environmental Oncology at the University of Pittsburgh Cancer Institute, said that this increase is not a cause for concern.

“It is absolutely true that this is an issue that’s going to come down the pipe and requires being addressed, but it is a reflection of a positive thing,” Grant said. “Cancer is basically a disease of aging. There is a bigger increase in people in the Third World reaching the age of 65 where cancer becomes an issue. We call this the epidemiological transition.”

There are ways to lower cancer death rates. Grant said that screenings are an important factor in helping to find and prevent cancer.

“We can’t treat you if we don’t know you have a problem,” Grant said. “Right now, with stage 1 breast cancer, we can cure 90% of the patients. However, in stage 4 breast cancer, it is around 30%. It is very important that we know as soon as possible that you have the cancer.”

Cancer can be caused by many factors, including genetics, environmental factors, lifestyle choices and age.

Grant and his research team look specifically at the genetics approach of cancer to combat it.

“My Ph.D. thesis was on mechanisms of carcinogenesis [cancer incidence]. I did monitoring experiments on people from Hiroshima and Chernobyl and people who had medical exposures and, in fact, demonstrated that if you look at the mutational burden in someone’s blood it is a very good predictor of subsequent carcinogenesis,” Grant said.

Priya Pawar, sophomore biology major, is already taking measures to prevent cancer.

“I wear sunscreen whenever I go outside for a long time. I also make sure to eat more organic foods,” Pawar said.